Morning, Grower.

Here’s what we got for you today…

A Farmland Value Report, which includes:

• FCC’s Annual Farmland Value Report

• Economic Factors Affecting Farmland Values in 2025

• Market Conditions in Early 2025

Farmland Value Report

FCC’s Annual Farmland Value Report

Farm Credit Canada (FCC) has recently released its 2024 Farmland Values Report, tracking changes in cultivated farmland prices across Canada. In Ontario, values rose by just 3.1%, a significant slowdown from double-digit increases in 2022 and 2023. 

Demand remains strong for high-quality land, but with tightening price ranges and reduced sales activity, buyers appear to be reaching their valuation limits in many regions.

Here is Ontario’s annual farmland value change for the last decade:

Only the Central West region saw strong growth at 13.5%, driven by urban pressure. Most other regions saw modest gains, with the South East at 3.8% and South West at 3.2%. Mid Western values held flat.

Click here to read the full report with all provinces.

Economic Factors Affecting Farmland Values in 2025

Many economic factors beyond tariffs are influencing Ontario's farmland market in 2025:

• Producer profit margins are projected to remain below average through 2025-26, according to FCC. For grain and oilseed producers, this continues a challenging period of compressed margins.

• Input costs are showing some favorable trends, with fertilizer affordability expected to improve in 2025-26. However, this positive development is offset by commodity price projections.

• Commodity prices are projected to be relatively weak. The FCC's 2025 crop outlook forecasts new-crop canola prices at $600/tonne, spring wheat at $330, and durum at $425 — figures that either match or fall below five-year averages.

Market Conditions in Early 2025

The election of Donald Trump in November 2024, followed by the implementation of tariffs in March 2025, has created considerable unease among investors. Which will only worsen if the US decides to impose additional tariffs in April 2025.

The tariffs have cast a shadow on the market. According to appraiser Ryan Parker with Valco Consultants in London, "From week to week, we have no idea who or what is compliant. People are sitting back and waiting.”

As an example, a 930-hectare (2,300-acre) farm near London, Ontario, listed for $72.1 million, has experienced a "chilly response" from potential buyers specifically due to tariff concerns. Philip Chabot, a realtor with Just Farms, noted that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs has made buyers nervous about the market for key crops like corn, wheat, and beans, which are often exported to the U.S. Click for full article from The London Free Press

Closing Thoughts

Ontario's farmland market in 2025 continues the cooling trend that began in 2024, with prices stabilizing after several years of dramatic growth. The implementation of US tariffs in March 2025 has intensified market hesitation, with many potential buyers adopting a cautious approach amid uncertainty about commodity markets, export opportunities, and potential government support programs.

As the year progresses, the agricultural land market will likely be shaped by developments in international trade relations, commodity prices, input costs, and government policy responses to the current trade tensions. With the US pledging additional tariffs to come into effect in April 2025, continued market caution seems inevitable in the near term.

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